Media Analyze Effects of Anti-Gay Ballot Initiatives on Local Elections

Conventional wisdom has been that having an anti-gay initiative on the ballot increases turnout among conservative voters, but now that theory is being called into question.  An article in The Tampa Tribune from February 24th quotes political scientists and experts on ballot issues and they seem to believe that the mere presence on the ballot may be of no significant influence on driving more voters to the polls on either side.

This coming November in Florida there will be such an amendment on the ballot, which would amend the state’s constitution to explicitly ban marriage or any other similar legal arrangement for gay and lesbian couples.  After the 2004 election came down to the state of Ohio, which had a similar amendment on the ballot at the time, many observers were quick to point out that President Bush’s slim victory in the battleground state may have been aided by conservative voters turning out in higher numbers because of the initiative.

Citing a wide range of nuanced studies from an array of states, Dan Smith, a University of Florida political scientist was quoted as saying, “Most voters who come out are going to be coming out to vote for the president.  People are going to be revved up about the candidates, and it’s not likely to bring out more people who otherwise wouldn’t vote.”

After looking at a detailed analysis of the vote in 2004, John Matsusaka, the president of the Initiative and Referendum Institute at the University of Southern California points out that Bush won Ohio in 2000 with a slightly higher margin than he did in 2004.

“It might have helped the Democrat [Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts], by driving opponents to the polls as well as backers,” Matsusaka said.

Even with these studies though, advocates from opposing sides on the issues in Florida still think that the amendment will aid the GOP and Senator John McCain in November.

McCain voted against the Federal Marriage Amendment in 2004 on ‘federalist’ grounds, but supported a failed amendment to Arizona’s constitution. 

Paul Karr is the Director of Media Field Strategy